Trading Floor
Forex and Equity strategy and trading
Visit Show Website http://www.tradingfloor.com/Recently Aired
-
HD
Q3 Outlook - Denial or change?
Continuation of ‘extend-and-pretend’ is likely. Introduction to the three phases: ...
Continuation of ‘extend-and-pretend’ is likely. Introduction to the three phases: Denial, protest and mandate for change.
-
HD
Saxo Bank Q3 Equity Outlook - Equities the most unloved asset class
- Oil stocks: Exxon Mobile, ConocoPhillips and British Petroleum - ...
- Oil stocks: Exxon Mobile, ConocoPhillips and British Petroleum - Global mining stocks: Vale, BHP and Rio Tinto - US Stocks – best quality companies and stable domestic markets
-
HD
Asian Focus: Peripheral central banks have plenty of ammunition
In this Asian Focus video Yvette Roper of TradingFloor.com interviews ...
In this Asian Focus video Yvette Roper of TradingFloor.com interviews Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore about how well peripheral Asian central banks are positioned for handling the global economic slowdown. In particularAndrew looks at the central banks of India, South Korea and Indonesia and to what degree their monetary policy decisions are affected by People’s Bank of China actions. In general, Asian central banks are better positioned to lower interest rates than western central banks. They appear to have a lot more ammunition in their toolboxes because interest rates are nowhere near zero, says Andrew. One of the biggest problems for Asia though, which has prevented much monetary action, has been inflation, though this seems to be dissipating. So the ability to act exists and when it comes to the need, there are already warning signals, says Andrew. China’s growth is at a three-year low and South Korean growth is close to a two-year low, so they are ready and able to act. It’s just a question of when and by how much. Just recently the Bank of Korea surprised the markets with a 25 basis point cut emphasising that this was due to the global economic slowdown - a kind of insurance measure rather than based on the real need to do anything. That’s now setting the tone for most of the central banks across the region, says Andrew. Concerning the Asian region’s kingpin, China, there’s no doubt that any People’s Bank of China interest rate moves are important for the peripheral Asian economies but they do not generally prompt similar actions. It’s a similar story regarding the Federal Reserve’s actions, with the last non-descript words from Chairman Ben Bernanke providing no clues for the Asian central banks. It’s all going to be very much dependent on the individual economies as to when the Asian central banks make their moves, says Andrew. They will make their moves mostly on their own accord when they feel it is necessary, he says. India and Indonesia stand out Two cases which stand out in the Asian region are India and Indonesia - India because of its huge struggle with high inflation and Indonesia because its economy has largely been unaffected by the global economic slowdown. Whilst the rest of Asia is enjoying slowing inflation India’s inflation rate is just above 7 percent on an annualised basis but down from a peak of 9.2 percent, which is why the Reserve Bank of India left rates unchanged in June. It is a central bank really on its own struggling with the age-old theme of high inflation, so rates will be on hold until inflation starts to behave, says Andrew. In contrast, Indonesia has never really struggled during the economic downturn of the last three years and inflation is steady. This indicates that the Bank of Indonesia will probably keep rates on hold for the rest of the year or only make a small cut in the third quarter, says Andrew. See more of Andrew's Asian market commentary on TradingFloor.com
-
HD
Asian Focus: China and Singapore Q2 GDP to confirm slowdown
In this Asian Focus Video Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst for ...
In this Asian Focus Video Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore takes a look at recent Chinese data, previews the important Australian jobs report and comments on the latest Bank of Japan policy meeting The implications so far from the release of China’s June inflation rate of 2.2 percent, the lowest rate since January 2010, immediately resulted in more talk of the flexibility of the People’s Bank of China to make further cuts to key rates, indicating that the market strongly believes China needs to lower them further to propel growth. China’s trade data confirmed the Asian powerhouse is struggling. Exports did grow more than expected but most of the gain in the trade surplus was due to a slowdown in imports. Of particular interest was a slowdown in steel and iron ore imports, which is bad news for the Australian economy, as it further underlines the shaky ground AUD is on, says Andrew. Industrial production and retail sales data for China due Friday are not seen drawing much attention or resulting in much market reaction with only minimal increase expected. What will be watched closely however is Q2 GDP, also out Friday. Consensus expects some slowdown to 1.6 percent qoq down from 1.8 percent in the first quarter and on annual basis 7.7 percent down from 8.1 percent. With the situation outside China slowing dramatically there’s a good risk however that the numbers will surprise to the downside, says Andrew. Elsewhere in Asia a Q2 GDP report from Singapore, also out Friday, is seen reflecting similar downbeat expectations - 1.2 percent qoq, which is a marked deterioration from the 10 percent seen in the first quarter. Looking further south in the Asian region, an Australian employment report for June will also be closely watched with the past two releases having been quite robust. All factors are in place for another positive jobs report from Australia, says Andrew. Consumer confidence was quite buoyant into June suggesting employment is still quite easy to come by. Today’s release of Westpac consumer sentiment which showed a plus 3.7 percent reading, further confirmed the positive backdrop. While the market seems to be expecting a flat number of just below 39,000 jobs added last month, Andrew is more optimistic. In terms of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting this week the majority of analysts do not expect additional easing measures and Andrew is in that camp too. The BOJ’s inflation forecast is key with a medium-term target of 1 percent in the coming years, which according to data so far seems a tough order to achieve, says Andrew. If the BOJ further lowers its inflation forecast that will be seen as a positive for the yen as it means the BOJ is not expecting to achieve its target and will struggle to get policies in place to make it happen. The BOJ’s 2013 forecast previously was 1.7% so any kind of fluctuation from these kinds of levels will create volatility for USDJPY, says Andrew. See more of Andrew's Asian market commentary on TradingFloor.com
-
HD
Asian Focus: Chinese services growth may prevent hard landing
In this Asian Focus Video Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst for ...
In this Asian Focus Video Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore reviews the latest Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision and the most recent series of PMI releases from across the Asian region with the focus (particularly for China) increasing on PMI services data. He also takes a look at other Australian data releases this week. Global slowdown impacts Asian economies Concerning PMI data from the region’s manufacturing sector for June recent numbers were generally quite soft and a testimony to how the global slowdown is impacting the Asian economies, says Andrew. Australia saw a slight improvement but the figure is still below the 50 threshold and has been since January this year. China is still surprisingly above 50 but lower than the previous month. The private HSBC report from China remains below the threshold at 48.2 but both reports are showing the same kind of tendencies, says Andrew. Some strength in service sector On service PMIs they are not monitored in Asia as closely as in Western economies. This data will however become increasingly important as Asian nations try to wean themselves off their export oriented manufacturing base and move to more service based economies. For China alone the latest data was surprisingly strong at 56.7 from 55.2. This suggests there is some strength within the service sector of the Chinese economy and maybe, just maybe, this will prevent it from hitting a hard landing if the manufacturing side continues to slide, says Andrew. RBA neutral The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5 percent, as expected and the statement thereafter was very neutral. In fact, it was probably the most neutral seen in the last 3-4 months, says Andrew. At this stage the slowdown in China remains a key concern though the biggest shocks are seen coming from the Eurozone. That side looks bleak and that’s probably why the statement was so non-committal today, says Andrew. Of particular note was the mention of the continued strength of the AUDUSD, which was not covered in the previous statement, with threats to this and the economy as a whole seen coming from abroad. Australian retail sales to rebound and trade deficit to widen Also concerning Australia, retail sales and trade data due later this week are in focus. Retail sales are seen showing a rebound from the previous month’s -0.2 percent to + 0.2 percent and the trade deficit is expected to widen to close to AUD 500 mn from 200 mn in the previous month. On the latter, as noted by the RBA the terms of trade are still quite high, though off their peak, and it’s the import costs for natural resources and other imports which are the key factor. China’s import numbers are still quite strong so that side of the equation is okay and it’s the import side which will cause the larger deficit, says Andrew. There’s still a mismatch (between mining and resources and the rest of the economy) but for now things are ticking along, he says. See more of Andrew's Asian market commentary on TradingFloor.com
-
HD
EURUSD positioning around EU summit; Turkish lira drops on Syria incident
A lot of the fun went out of the EU ...
A lot of the fun went out of the EU summit after a German official declared no decisions would be made, says Saxo Bank FX trader Pierre Magnussen. He says that focus has already begun to shift to next week's ECB meeting and expectations for a rate cut there. Pierre also discusses the hit the Turkish lira has taken from recent events in Syria.
-
HD
Risks and Rewards of Greek stocks now
The Greek stock market has had a rough ride over ...
The Greek stock market has had a rough ride over the past three years: if 2009 is seen as a base of 100, the Athens Stock Exchange is now stuck near 20. Is investing in Greek stocks a guaranteed way to lose money? Or are there opportunities for an experienced investor with risk appetite? Peter Bo Kiær, an equity analyst at Saxo Bank, weighs in.
-
HD
EURUSD and USDJPY now: Saxo Bank FX Trader Sergej Rybalko
Saxo Bank spot FX trader Sergej Rybalko discusses the current ...
Saxo Bank spot FX trader Sergej Rybalko discusses the current EURUSD range, giving top and bottom levels, and explains why it's signficant that importers are chasing USDJPY higher.
-
HD
If Greece pulls out of the euro, health care stocks may be the best place to...
A 'grexit' from the Euro seems possible, if not yet ...
A 'grexit' from the Euro seems possible, if not yet inevitable. The resulting sharp draw-down on the country's banks would likely cause capital flow out of Europe, and probably out of equities. Matt Bolduc argues that the healthcare sector may be best positioned to weather the storm.
-
HD
After the Greek election: a calm day in FX options
The FX market is taking a wait-and-see approach to the ...
The FX market is taking a wait-and-see approach to the results of the Greek elections, says Jeppe Norup, an FX Options dealer at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen. Jeppe suggests that a break of EURUSD 1.26 would result in increased volatility.
